Mercedes guess right to help Hamilton seize pole at soggy Suzuka, Bottas P2 for Silver Arrows lockout; Ferrari miscalculate badly leading to Vettel starting P9; Red Bull’s Verstappen qualifies P3
Lewis Hamilton scored his remarkable 80th pole position at soggy Suzuka during Saturday qualifying for tomorrow’s Japanese Grand Prix. The Mercedes ace continued his strong run down the stretch of this 2018 season, having won a dominating five out of the last six races. The English points leader was also helped immensely by his team’s correct take on the damp weather that so often proves decisive at this fabled circuit. Running ahead of but close to Ferrari going into Q3 and with the previous two quali sessions rain-affected to some degree, Mercedes decided to keep their men on slicks for the final session. Meanwhile Ferrari gambled and lost with the weather forecast, sending their duo of Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen out on Intermediate wet Pirellis for a track that stubbornly refused to stay rainy enough to utilize. Instead Ferrari quickly realized their error and called their men back to the pits, a crucial loss of time in the short final 12-minute session. So while Hamilton and his teammate Valtteri Bottas were already setting fast banker laps in case more rain might be on the way, the Prancing Horses found themselves seriously behind the 8 ball.
And as so often happens when an all-or-nothing wager goes south, Vettel was unable to hook up a clean lap when the track was at its best, had to come in to top up on fuel and rejoined at the very moment that the skies decided open up again. Facing an uphill fight for the Championship with only 5 more races to go and Hamilton leading him by 50 points, Vettel’s car could find no grid and he could do no better than the P9 lap that his untidy earlier run earned him. Coming at a circuit where passing is extraordinarily difficult and the race is won from pole about 50% of the time, Vettel faces a long day in the saddle trying to do damage control and keep his title hopes alive. In starting from pole, on the other hand, Hamilton is firmly in the catbird seat. His teammate Bottas will start in P2 for yet another Silver Arrows front row lockout, while Vettel’s wingman Kimi Raikkonen will try to keep in touch with the leaders from P4 and hope that Sebastian can meet up with him somewhere down the road.
Red Bull’s Max Verstappen was third quickest and will line up alongside Raikkonen in P3. But he may also be worried about the reliability of his mount after seeing his teammate Daniel Riccardo’s car suffer some sort of engine failure in Q1. Haas’s Romain Grosjean scored an opportunistic P5 spot on the grid amid Vettel’s and Riccardo’s respective misfortunes. Toro Rosso also had a good day with Brendan Hartley getting a much needed confidence boost by out-qualifying his teammate Pierre Gasly, P6 to P7. The Force Indias of Esteban Ocon and Sergio Perez rounded out the top 10 in P8 and P10 respectively. But Ocon will be docked three grid positions for failing to slow adequately during a red flag period during Free Practice 3.
Top 10 qualifiers for the Japanese GP:
| POS | DRIVER | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1:28.702 | 1:28.017 | 1:27.760 | |
| 2 | 1:29.297 | 1:27.987 | 1:28.059 | |
| 3 | 1:29.480 | 1:28.849 | 1:29.057 | |
| 4 | 1:29.631 | 1:28.595 | 1:29.521 | |
| 5 | 1:29.724 | 1:29.678 | 1:29.761 | |
| 6 | 1:30.248 | 1:29.848 | 1:30.023 | |
| 7 | 1:30.137 | 1:29.810 | 1:30.093 | |
| 8 | 1:29.899 | 1:29.538 | 1:30.126 | |
| 9 | 1:29.049 | 1:28.279 | 1:32.192 | |
| 10 | 1:30.247 | 1:29.567 | 1:37.229 |
Complete qualifying results available via Formula.com.
Tomorrow’s race airs live starting at 1AM Eastern on ESPN2 here in the States. With rain just as likely to throw more strategic curveballs as it did today I hope you’ll join me then — or at least set the DVR for this overnighter — to find out how this Far East battle shakes out!