Author Archives: Dick Bonneville

It’s up to You, New York, New York…

OK, four weeks into another injury riddled and genuinely odd (albeit wildly entertaining) NFL season, and we’re starting to get an idea about contenders and pretenders.  Today, I would like to focus on the New York teams and their respective division races.

NFC East

The New York football Giants looked dismal in weeks 1 and 2, and I truly thought it may be a lost season for Big Blue.  Surely, it would be the season that finally ushered curmudgeonly Tom Coughlin out the door (is it me, or does this guy belong in a trash can on Sesame Street?…but I digress).  Instead, the offense of new OC Ben McAdoo is really starting to click…to the tune of 75 points in it’s last two games.  It’s a testament to Coughlin that he was able to introduce a new system with a gaggle of new players and get the ship righted after just 2 weeks.  Kudos to you Oscar the Grouch.

To my eye, this division is going to come down to the G-Men and the Cowboys, but when it’s crunch time, who do you trust?  Eli Manning’s got a couple of rings.  Tony Romo has got a couple of the most egregious playoff meltdowns in NFL history.  So go Big Blue!

The Eagles are enigmatic.  Defensive Coordinators seem to have caught up to Chip Kelly’s hurry-up offense and even a defensive and special teams performance for the ages weren’t enough to get Philly past the Niners last week.

As for Washington, they’ll be lucky to win 6 games with Cousin’s behind center.

AFC East

Things are not so rosy for the co-tenants of MetLife stadium.  In fact, if you listen to the New York media, the sky is falling all around HC Rex Ryan and GM John Idzik.  I, for one, don’t share their dire perspective.  There are a couple of reasons for NYJ fans not to lose heart.

  1. The Jets have had a chance to win every game this year, and they’ve played some pretty good teams.  They gave away the Green Bay game and the referees took the Bears game away from them
  2. No one in the division has better than a 2-2 record (1 game ahead of the Jets)
  3. Most importantly, who in the AFC East scares you?

The mighty New England Patriots are 2-2, and they’ve won those two games by scheme alone.  The talent level is way off this year, and we’re starting to see that even Tom Brady can’t do anything without the Offensive Line that gave him hours to sit back and pick defenses apart.

Miami has some talent, but is riddled with inconsistency.  Without a real playoff push, this could be the end for Jerry Philbin.

The Bills are also in a bit of disarray.  They just benched sophomore phenom EJ Manuel and got journeyman Kyle Orton out of mothballs to try to right the ship, but even with some more consistent QB play, the Bills are not a playoff team.

I suppose this is my long-winded way of saying that the first quarter of the season is in the books, and the Giants are poised to make a great push for the division title.  A week 5 win in San Diego (a city traditionally kind the visiting Jets), could be a great deodorant for the Jets and moreover for beleaguered signal caller, Geno Smith!

Enjoy the games and feel free to start or join a pool at TheOfficePool.com

NFL Early Results…Where To Go Next!

We’re now two weeks into the new NFL season, and to date, there have been far more headlines devoted to the off-field missteps of several star players than the action between the sidelines.  I, for one, am a purist, and while I have my opinions about Mr. Rice and Mr. Peterson, I much prefer to focus on the early season trends and keeping my eyes on the prize (specifically another weekly pick ’em title come season’s end).

To that end, let’s see what’s happened in the first two weeks of the season, shall we.

Now, if you look back to my first post, you will notice the one (almost unfair) piece of advice that I gave.

“Pick lots of underdogs in the first three or four weeks of the season, as they do have a tendency to cover.”

If you look at week two, here were the four largest spreads:

Denver -12.5 vs. Kansas City
Green Bay -9.5 vs. New York Jets
San Francisco – 7.5 vs. Chicago
New Orleans -6.5 vs. Cleveland

I’m guessing that I don’t need to tell you that all four dogs covered the spread and two teams won outright (should have been three).

This trend will continue into weeks 3 and 4, but as the season wears on, big favorites are more and more likely to cover, so take advantage of it while you still can.

Here’s another piece of advice that doesn’t have an expiration date.  One trend that will not fade is home dogs within the division.  They tend to cover all year round.  If you need and example, look no further than the Miami Dolphins.  The Fins were a huge dog at home and beat the Pats in week one, only to lose as a favorite on the road in Buffalo week 2.

As for the action on the field so far, it’s been terrifically enjoyable. Injuries to established stars have provided opportunities for some young players, and they have not disappointed….especially the young receivers (Watkins, Cooks, et al).  My favorite play thus far was the karate kick by Antonio Brown in week one (pictured above).  Not since Necessary Roughness and The Replacements have I seen such a blatant disregard of the rules, or such a violent kick to the neck/chest area.  A close second is the resurgence of yet another Antonio, Antonio “I-ain’t-done-yet” Gates, who had three touchdowns in week two (one of which was utterly spectacular).  It’s great to see a true hall-of-famer still competing at the highest level.

So, make sure you keep to your plan.  Have a strategy and stick with it….you will find yourself near the top come December.

-DB

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How To Win Your NFL Pick ‘Em Pool in 2014

NFL Football is BACK with the defending Champion Seahawks and storied franchise Green Bay kicking things off for real in less than a week. I know that I’ll be joining multiple football pools of various types (NFL Fantasy, NFL Survivor, 40-Plus, etc.), but I’m most excited about my first love, the good old weekly pick em vs. the spread pool. I’ve been doing them and running them for over 25 years, and I’ve finished in the Top 3 in no fewer than ten of those years. If you think that’s lucky, I’m here to tell you….luck has little to do with it.

In fairness, I wrote a computer program back in 1992 to help me do my picks, and yes….if I were more of a gambler, I would likely be a rich man by now, but I’ve NEVER finished below 52% for a season, and that’s better than most handicappers. How do I do it? I have a system, and while I can’t share my program with the world, I’m perfectly willing to share with you the logic behind it.

So, without further ado, here are 5 tips that will help you win your NFL Weekly Pick ‘Em Pool in 2014.

Have a System

Now not everyone is as geeky as I am, so I’m not expecting you to write a computer program, but if you want to have success, you need to have a system. Some people take all dogs, some flip a coin (don’t laugh…you’re all but guaranteed at least close to 50%, and statistically most players end up below that line). I based my system on trending based on match ups (within the division, in conference, out of conference, etc.) and programmed my system to weight the teams accordingly.

Be Consistent

Winning a week or even two in a season is great, and depending on how much your buy in is, that could pay for your entries for a couple of years.  That said, winning the whole enchilada is where the big bucks come in, and a regular season championship could finance your pool habit for the rest of your life. Once you have a system, STICK WITH IT…don’t let one sub-par week throw you. The second you start going based on hunches or inconsistent systems, you’re dead!

Talk Smack

Normally, I’m not a big proponent of trash talking. I never do it on the court or the softball diamond, but in the world of your pool…it can be essential. Continue reading →