We’re now two weeks into the new NFL season, and to date, there have been far more headlines devoted to the off-field missteps of several star players than the action between the sidelines.  I, for one, am a purist, and while I have my opinions about Mr. Rice and Mr. Peterson, I much prefer to focus on the early season trends and keeping my eyes on the prize (specifically another weekly pick ’em title come season’s end).

To that end, let’s see what’s happened in the first two weeks of the season, shall we.

Now, if you look back to my first post, you will notice the one (almost unfair) piece of advice that I gave.

“Pick lots of underdogs in the first three or four weeks of the season, as they do have a tendency to cover.”

If you look at week two, here were the four largest spreads:

Denver -12.5 vs. Kansas City
Green Bay -9.5 vs. New York Jets
San Francisco – 7.5 vs. Chicago
New Orleans -6.5 vs. Cleveland

I’m guessing that I don’t need to tell you that all four dogs covered the spread and two teams won outright (should have been three).

This trend will continue into weeks 3 and 4, but as the season wears on, big favorites are more and more likely to cover, so take advantage of it while you still can.

Here’s another piece of advice that doesn’t have an expiration date.  One trend that will not fade is home dogs within the division.  They tend to cover all year round.  If you need and example, look no further than the Miami Dolphins.  The Fins were a huge dog at home and beat the Pats in week one, only to lose as a favorite on the road in Buffalo week 2.

As for the action on the field so far, it’s been terrifically enjoyable. Injuries to established stars have provided opportunities for some young players, and they have not disappointed….especially the young receivers (Watkins, Cooks, et al).  My favorite play thus far was the karate kick by Antonio Brown in week one (pictured above).  Not since Necessary Roughness and The Replacements have I seen such a blatant disregard of the rules, or such a violent kick to the neck/chest area.  A close second is the resurgence of yet another Antonio, Antonio “I-ain’t-done-yet” Gates, who had three touchdowns in week two (one of which was utterly spectacular).  It’s great to see a true hall-of-famer still competing at the highest level.

So, make sure you keep to your plan.  Have a strategy and stick with it….you will find yourself near the top come December.

-DB

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NFL Football is BACK with the defending Champion Seahawks and storied franchise Green Bay kicking things off for real in less than a week. I know that I’ll be joining multiple football pools of various types (NFL Fantasy, NFL Survivor, 40-Plus, etc.), but I’m most excited about my first love, the good old weekly pick em vs. the spread pool. I’ve been doing them and running them for over 25 years, and I’ve finished in the Top 3 in no fewer than ten of those years. If you think that’s lucky, I’m here to tell you….luck has little to do with it.

In fairness, I wrote a computer program back in 1992 to help me do my picks, and yes….if I were more of a gambler, I would likely be a rich man by now, but I’ve NEVER finished below 52% for a season, and that’s better than most handicappers. How do I do it? I have a system, and while I can’t share my program with the world, I’m perfectly willing to share with you the logic behind it.

So, without further ado, here are 5 tips that will help you win your NFL Weekly Pick ‘Em Pool in 2014.

Have a System

Now not everyone is as geeky as I am, so I’m not expecting you to write a computer program, but if you want to have success, you need to have a system. Some people take all dogs, some flip a coin (don’t laugh…you’re all but guaranteed at least close to 50%, and statistically most players end up below that line). I based my system on trending based on match ups (within the division, in conference, out of conference, etc.) and programmed my system to weight the teams accordingly.

Be Consistent

Winning a week or even two in a season is great, and depending on how much your buy in is, that could pay for your entries for a couple of years.  That said, winning the whole enchilada is where the big bucks come in, and a regular season championship could finance your pool habit for the rest of your life. Once you have a system, STICK WITH IT…don’t let one sub-par week throw you. The second you start going based on hunches or inconsistent systems, you’re dead!

Talk Smack

Normally, I’m not a big proponent of trash talking. I never do it on the court or the softball diamond, but in the world of your pool…it can be essential. Continue reading →